Oklahoma Weather Discussion - November/December 2013

[venture]

Approaching that time of the year...

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
243 PM CST THU NOV 7 2013


...VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...


OKZ004-005-009-010-014-021-033-034-036-TXZ083-084-087-081000-
/O.NEW.KOUN.FW.A.0007.131108T1900Z-131109T0100Z/
HARPER-WOODS-ELLIS-WOODWARD-ROGER MILLS-BECKHAM-HARMON-GREER-
JACKSON-HARDEMAN-FOARD-KNOX-
243 PM CST THU NOV 7 2013


...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING FOR VERY DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS IN FAR WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS


* WIND...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 WITH HIGHER GUSTS


* HUMIDITY...NEAR 20 PERCENT


* TEMPERATURE...65 TO 70 DEGREES


* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY.
OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


MONITOR WEATHER FORECASTS AND INFORMATION.

[venture]

Tuesday morning front will come through with colder air behind it. Some light precip, maybe a tenth of an inch, but could see some sleet mix in based on the forecast sounding. Nothing major to worry about now as surface temps will be in the upper 30s.

[Anonymous.]

Relatively quiet this week, a shot of cold air to come through.

Next two weeks looks like the fun begins!

[Bunty]

HARD FREEZE WARNING OUT FROM 8PM TUE. to 10AM WED.- COVERS ENTIRE OKC METRO AREA

Areas affected: Atoka; Beckham; Blaine; Bryan; Caddo; Canadian; Carter; Cleveland; Coal; Comanche; Cotton; Custer; Dewey; Garvin; Grady; Greer; Harmon; Hughes; Jackson; Jefferson; Johnston; Kingfisher; Kiowa; Lincoln; Logan; Love; Marshall; McClain; Murray; Oklahoma; Payne; Pontotoc; Pottawatomie; Roger Mills; Seminole; Stephens; Tillman; Wash ita

Instructions: A hard freeze warning means sub-freezing temperatures are imminent or highly likely. These conditions will kill crops and other sensitive vegetation.

Message summary: The national weather service in norman has issued a hard freeze warning.
...hard freeze warning in effect from 8 pm tuesday to 10 am cst wednesday...
* temperature: 20 to 25 by early wednesday morning.

Dark blue in warning area.


FROM: Stillwater Weather - Advisories, Watches, Warnings, Etc.

[venture]

Bread & Milk Watch

Time Period: Nov 25th to 27th

Reason: Chance for accumulating snow has been depicted on 2 of the last 3 GFS runs.

Likelihood of Occurring: 10%

[Anonymous.]

Bread and Milk Watch still in effect for November 25ish.

[ouamber]

What's everyone thoughts on the 17-21st time frame? Looks to get pretty cold and potentially our next weather maker.

[venture]

Bread and Milk Watch still in effect for November 25ish.

Definitely seems like there will be some decent sized system that week...

12Z GFS forecast...

[kelroy55]

Looking like I can leave my golf clubs behind when I go to Kansas for Thanksgiving.

[venture]

What's everyone thoughts on the 17-21st time frame? Looks to get pretty cold and potentially our next weather maker.

Nothing too exciting yet from what I've been seeing. Looks like most of the precip is will ahead of the cold air looking at GFS and ECMWF.

[venture]

GFS just finished up completely. Dreaming of a white Thanksgiving?

[Anonymous.]

GFS just finished up completely. Dreaming of a white Thanksgiving?

Below freezing for the entire week. Gotta be a dream!

[venture]

Since freeze warnings are boring...here is a look at the week of Thanksgiving. Total snow by 1AM Turkey day per the 18Z GFS...

Take away - storm that week appears probable, but actual location is faaaaaaaaaaaaaaaar from locked in.

[Anonymous.]

This weekend looks great. Maybe some fast moving showers Saturday. Better chances as you head east.

Long range GFS looks less exciting, winter storm wise, as of now.

[ouamber]

Euro is now showing a 10 day out storm for late next weekend: This could be the same storm the GFS was hinting at between the 24-28th time frame. Any thoughts?

[venture]

Timing is about right Amber. I think there has been enough hints at something happening during that period, but still would like to see 3 or 4 consecutive runs with a similar solution. For now I think we keep the Bread and Milk Watch up.

[Dubya61]

For now I think we keep the Bread and Milk Watch up.

I'm not good at reading your sarcasm font, but ... I'm always amazed at the grocery swarm prior to feared bad weather. I'll never understand it. I wonder what it's like in other states.

[Anonymous.]

I'm not good at reading your sarcasm font, but ... I'm always amazed at the grocery swarm prior to feared bad weather. I'll never understand it. I wonder what it's like in other states.

It is the same way everywhere from my experience. The difference is when bread and milk panics occurr. For us here in OK, bread and milk panics are present with much lower severity of storms. Whereas in the Northeast, bread and milk panic is usually for forecasted apocalyptic-type storms.

[bandnerd]

Don't forget toilet paper. Eating all that bread and milk, you know...

[venture]

18Z GFS has the snow back, but on the 29th and 30th.

[venture]

Not really for us, but something I will be following since it impacts the folks back north. Could have a big time late fall outbreak from the Lower Lakes through the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley. Wind profiles and shear forecasts look ridiculous and storm motions are estimated NE @45-60 mph. Not a lot of lead time for them on Sunday.

[ou48A]

Don't forget toilet paper. Eating all that bread and milk, you know...

Tip of the day!

When roughing it I discovered that icicles will work in a pinch.
But just be sure that you watch out for sharp edges!

[ouamber]

I decided I would keep track of the potential "milk and bread" storm, and following the Euro it definately keeps the storm. Looks like a classic southern snow maker too. Fingers crossed

[venture]

This is what Amber is talking about. This is the snowfall accumulation by 6PM Friday the 22nd per the ECMWF (euro). I added an outline of the part of the state border that was hard to seen. The GFS is faster with the system and moves all moisture out before the cold air arrives.

[SomeGuy]

I hope it doesn't snow next Friday, I got college. If it does will it only be one day or several?