Oklahoma Commercial Aviation Discussion 2013

[venture]

I bet I kept clicking on Tues/Weds.

[venture]

Two state airports have filed requests under the Small Community Air Service Development grant program.

Stillwater (SWO) has applied for funds to attract American Eagle service to Dallas/Fort Worth.

Lawton (LAW) has applied for funds to retain service by American Eagle to DFW.

Their applications should be available soon to view the specifics of what is being proposed.

[LakeEffect]

Two state airports have filed requests under the Small Community Air Service Development grant program.

Stillwater (SWO) has applied for funds to attract American Eagle service to Dallas/Fort Worth.

Lawton (LAW) has applied for funds to retain service by American Eagle to DFW.

Their applications should be available soon to view the specifics of what is being proposed.

Thoughts? I see LAW retaining service more important than SWO gaining service. LAW requires a 1+ hr drive to OKC or 2+ hr drive to DFW, but SWO is 1 hr either way to OKC or Tulsa.

[venture]

Thoughts? I see LAW retaining service more important than SWO gaining service. LAW requires a 1+ hr drive to OKC or 2+ hr drive to DFW, but SWO is 1 hr either way to OKC or Tulsa.

I want to see the numbers they are asking for and what demand they are expecting, but some thoughts...

LAW retaining service is definitely needed for that part of the state. It is pretty well detached and still has a decent passenger base. We are also looking at a good amount of government traffic going through there. I'll have to pull some numbers on how AA actually performs out of there to go much further.

SWO seems like a shot in the dark. It would require upgrades to put in a TSA check point and such in their terminal building, which I'm not sure the condition it is in. It is also going to be tough to provide comparable fares to TUL or OKC using high cost 50-seat jets since airlines have shed most of their turboprop aircraft. There will also be very little new service added by American until the US Airways team has full control and they get through playing connect the dots with the US hubs and AA-only stations.

To be honest, I think Norman would be more capable of supporting RJ service to Dallas than Stillwater right now. However, we aren't anywhere near the point of needing to use OUN as a reliever airport yet (probably never will).

[damonsmuz]

Im surprised that Woodward or even Guymon hasn't applied for service to DEN via Great Lakes. I brought this up many moons ago but a Woodward or Guymon routing to DEN via Liberal/(Insert some small Kansas town here) could work. You talk an area that is one heckuva drive to reach an airport.

[khook]

Guymon is just a fourty minute drive at most to Liberal.... Have you ever tried to get Great Lakes out of Liberal lots of breakdowns and very little customer service when they do break down. Woodward maybe either thru Liberal or Dodge City

[Kokopelli]

From the center of Woodward to WRWA it is 139 miles, to Liberal it is 117 miles and to DCK it is 112 miles. Most people in Woodward would rather drive the extra few miles to OKC and have many more options on airlines and departure times.

[venture]

Woodward had service at one point on I think Big Sky (as well as others) going that direction. EAS contract was dropped and the airline moved on. I believe fed law prohibits them becoming an EAS city again.

[damonsmuz]

Spirit Aero CEO says he's open to selling all or part of Oklahoma operations. Came down on my TDameritrade alert today.

[adaniel]

Spirit Aero CEO says he's open to selling all or part of Oklahoma operations. Came down on my TDameritrade alert today.

Yikes! Thats bad news for Tulsa

[venture]

Lawton's SCASD grant application was posted today. Still waiting on Stillwater's to get into the details.

Details for LAW...

Grant Request Amount: $195k
State Cash: $15.6k
Airport Cash: $15k
Airport Non-Cash: $25k
Airport In-Kind: $10k
Other In-King: $120K

Total: $380.6k

Again, this grant application will be used to retain American to Dallas. AA's load factor for 2012 was 64% up from 56% in 2011. However pax levels dropped to 52k (from 61) and had 82k total seats (down from 108k).

Details: DOT-OST-2013-0120-0036 - Proposal of Lawton, Oklahoma (Lawton-Fort Sill Regional Airport - LAW) - Federal Notice

[BG918]

Yikes! Thats bad news for Tulsa

GKN (British aerospace company) is rumored to be interested in the two Oklahoma plants, and they will continue to operate.

Regarding LAW, I know some people there and in nearby Duncan that use the AA flights to DFW several times a year. I remember they also tried Atlanta on Delta but it didn't last long. Stillwater doesn't make much sense with OKC and TUL so close.

I was just in Shreveport and flew into SHV. They still have daily flights to Memphis on Delta, not sure how much longer that will last though. OKC's non-stop to Memphis ends later this month, and they ended their Tulsa flight awhile back. They also have Allegiant Air which has non-stops to Las Vegas and Orlando, also surprising for such a small airport.

[venture]

Regarding LAW, I know some people there and in nearby Duncan that use the AA flights to DFW several times a year. I remember they also tried Atlanta on Delta but it didn't last long. Stillwater doesn't make much sense with OKC and TUL so close.

Atlanta was done with a SCASD grant and lasted just about a year. It was Delta's attempt to return to LAW since they left after closing the DFW hub. Still waiting on the details from SWO application to shed some light on things. With the right service it can make sense. There are plenty of small cities with commercial service right now, but what their market study is showing is what I want to see.

I was just in Shreveport... They also have Allegiant Air which has non-stops to Las Vegas and Orlando, also surprising for such a small airport.

Then you must not follow Allegiant at all. They are the most profitable airline right now and they do it by flying from small and underserved markets to big vacation spots: Route Map | Allegiant Air

Typically a city can only keep their service if they have around a 90% load factor, which should speak to the capabilities of the smaller cities.

[venture]

AA will be going down to 8 daily to DFW this winter. They will be axing one of the mainline flights and it'll be the first time we drop to less than 7 mainline in awhile. Going forward it will be 6x MD80, 1x CRJ, and 1x ER4. ORD will go down to 4 daily flights served by 2x CR7, 1x ERJ-145, and 1x ERJ-140. Changes appear to be just the seasonal winter pull down, so we'll see what happens in the Spring. I would imagine ORD will go back to 5.

[catch22]

Everything I see shows 7 mainline still but dropping 1 eagle flight? Total of 8.

[catch22]

09dec-mon- alternate service\
1aa2363 okcdfw 620a 725a m80 0 105\
2aa2464 okcdfw 735a 840a m80 0 105\
3aa1011 okcdfw 825a 935a m80 0 110\
4aa2514* okcdfw 930a 1035a crj 0 105\
5aa1569 okcdfw 1055a 1200n m83 0 105\
6aa1600 okcdfw 100p 205p m80 0 105\
7aa 382 okcdfw 425p 530p m80 0 105\
8aa1492 okcdfw 645p 750p m80 0 105\

09dec-mon- alternate service\
1aa2514* dfwokc 805a 855a crj 0 050\
2aa1569 dfwokc 920a 1015a m83 0 055\
3aa1600 dfwokc 1125a 1220p m80 0 055\
4aa 382 dfwokc 250p 345p m80 0 055\
5aa1492 dfwokc 510p 605p m80 0 055\
6aa2256 dfwokc 725p 820p m80 0 055\
7aa1408 dfwokc 835p 930p m80 0 055\
8aa2274 dfwokc 1025p 1120p m80 0 055\

[s00nr1]

Hey, I'll never complain about losing an ER4.

[catch22]

Looks like December is 7 mainline 1 eagle, January 6 mainline 2 eagle. February and March show the same but those may change.

[venture]

Looks like December is 7 mainline 1 eagle, January 6 mainline 2 eagle. February and March show the same but those may change.

The new schedule load went in over the weekend for Jan-Mar...so the 6 mainline 2 Eagle (technically 1 Eagle 1 connection until that's gone) seems to be here until Spring.

[venture]

Not Oklahoma, but American announced 2 daily CRJ-700 flights from Little Rock to New York LaGuardia starting in November. Hopefully this is a sign that they will take a look at OKC-LGA at some point.

[catch22]

I hope I'm wrong, but I think OKC is at a plateau of service, at least for the time being.

Loads have pretty much flattened out, quite a few empty seats going out across the board. For August, loads have looked like February.

[venture]

I hope I'm wrong, but I think OKC is at a plateau of service, at least for the time being.

Loads have pretty much flattened out, quite a few empty seats going out across the board. For August, loads have looked like February.

You are probably right. A problem for OKC, compared to others, we are somewhat isolated here. The population density isn't the same as back east or in california where you can get large population to drive 60-90 minutes to fly out of your airport.

[HangryHippo]

Not Oklahoma, but American announced 2 daily CRJ-700 flights from Little Rock to New York LaGuardia starting in November. Hopefully this is a sign that they will take a look at OKC-LGA at some point.

How does Little Rock secure that service before OKC? Is it just not as popular a destination?

[no1cub17]

How does Little Rock secure that service before OKC? Is it just not as popular a destination?

This has me puzzled as well... LIT is much, much smaller city-wise than OKC - you'd think with OKC's strong economy and booming downtown we'd get NYC service first? What drives LIT-NYC traffic? Surely this isn't for the wal-mart folks bc then it would be out of XNA?

[venture]

Stillwater (SWO) application is available now.

DOT-OST-2013-0120-0057 - Proposal of Stillwater Regional Airport (City of Stillwater, OK) - Federal Notice

Fed Amount Requested - $447k
State cash contribution - $36k
Airport cash funds - $0
Non-airport cash funds - $3.365M (all local)
Airport in-kind contribution - $160k
Other in-kind - $250k
Total Project Cost - $4,258,600.00

• Target American Airlines (Eagle/Connection) service to Dallas/Fort Worth.
• Air service study indicates 674 local pax per day each way (pdew) overall - not just DFW.
• In-kind airport portion would be waived fees.
• SWO catchment area covers 195,000 residents.
• True market study shows 20.4 pdew for SWO-DFW local O&D market. 61% use OKC with 36% using TUL and 3% using DFW.

Planned Service

2 Daily Round Trips
ERJ-145 50-seat RJs
Expecting an 82% load factor
Starting April 2014

Total cost for the year would be $11.8 million with a revenue shortfall of $1.5 million over the course of the year. By January of 2015 they expect it to be in the black making $40-45k per month.

Alternate Plan if AA declines would be United to DEN or IAH.

This is a pretty large proposal based on other SCASD grant applications, but a significant chunk of that is for the purchase of equipment to handle an airline at SWO. That is all being lumped in here as part of the revenue guarantee to ease the entry for American.

My overall feeling is 50/50 on this one being approved. The application is well done, but I'm not sure how well it'll go over. They are only asking for a relatively small portion from the DOT, so that is always a plus. The big thing here for SWO is to get 10,000 ticketed passengers through the airport per year. Why that number? As soon as they qualify they will go from getting $150k a year to well over $1 million a year from the Airport Improvement Program fund. That's huge.

I wanted to hit on the True Market Study for SWO. I love these since they show what the market (catchment) area is actually doing. I recently asked if there was one for WRWA and Ms. Karney said there wasn't a need for one so they haven't done it. So for the SWO catchment area, which is essentially North central OK or roughly 40 miles around the airport. A lot of good information here. Not huge numbers by any means, but I think it shows that SWO could support more. I think they might be a good shot at Allegiant. Regardless, the goal for them is to get over that 10k pax mark to get making more money.

Below's chart is the market share for the SWO catchment area and where people are driver to. Vast majority go to OKC unless they are going to Washington for some reason.

	OKC	TUL	DFW	MARKET	PDEW
Las Vegas	71	27	2	20,617	28.2
Washington,	21	79	0	20,503	28.1
Houston,	75	24	0	20,006	27.4
Denver,	71	29	0	19,214	26.3
Orlando,	62	36	2	17,027	23.3
Phoenix,	55	43	2	15,249	20.9
Dallas,	68	32	0	14,858	20.4
Chicago,	60	39	1	12,101	16.6
Atlanta,	57	40	3	12,024	16.5
Baltimore,	64	36	0	11,545	15.8
San Diego	74	25	1	11,240	15.4
San Antonio	65	28	7	10,797	14.8
Domestic	61	37	2	455,881	624.5
International	63	30	7	36,431	49.9
Total	61	36	3	492,312	674.4