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I would say the Moderate Risk will easily end up verifying, really bad situation unfolding across southern/eastern Oklahoma right now.

April is becoming fairly notorious for synoptically obvious events that nonetheless manage to bust due to subtle issues (I agree with C_M_25 that lack of forcing is likely the main issue today). Not...

Trying to predict exactly how today's event will unfold is going to be incredibly challenging, but it's safe to say that overnight trends have been alarming and seem to suggest a higher-end event is...

SPC has upgraded the entire Metro to a Moderate Risk for both tornadoes and hail.

Going to be out and about taking photos tomorrow so not sure how much more I’m going to post on this event, but one final thing I’ll say is that we might be trending towards an outcome in which the...

I still think we’re going to get a good amount of rain either way tomorrow, so if we could manage to thread the needle with regards to avoiding a high-end severe weather event, that would be great.
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Tomorrow is still a very complicated setup, but here are my thoughts at the moment.

1) A complex of elevated thunderstorms will develop in Northwest Texas around 6 a.m. or so. Between 10:00 a.m....

Dryline is about to move through the Metro which should end our severe threat for the day, although I would say that supercells could form as far west as US-177.

SPC has stayed with an Enhanced...

We certainly aren’t out of the woods, but convective trends and recent model runs do lead me to believe that the bullseye for tonight’s severe weather threat has shifted somewhat south of the Metro....

I tend to think that all hazards will be in play tonight given the strength of most model solutions and the fact that there doesn’t appear to be any cap inhibiting surface-based convection on the...

Sometimes with these complex multi-day convective setups, I like to make a table comparing the output of the different convection-allowing models. I am sharing that table here. Please note that this...

First look at the convection-allowing models suggests that there will be a lot of elevated convection on Saturday Morning.

Storm threat should be over until sunset. There may be another round overnight, but areas north and east of OKC will likely be favored. If we are impacted, main threat will once again be marginally...

Would also note that the SPC issued a relatively rare Day 3 outlook upgrade about an hour ago (from Slight to Enhanced) but that the area they upgraded is well to the west of the Metro, which goes...

As of right now, I would say:

7 a.m. Wednesday - 1 p.m. Wednesday
10 p.m. Wednesday - 4 a.m. Thursday (low confidence)
10 p.m. Thursday - 7 a.m. Friday
4 p.m. Saturday - 1 a.m. Sunday

With...

Thinking there will be three main chances for convection in this pattern. First, would expect some elevated hailers in the vicinity of the Metro starting tomorrow morning as a warm front stalls to...

I would agree that Saturday looks most favorable for severe weather at the moment. Regardless, it is looking to be a very stormy period starting Wednesday and continuing through at least the end of...

Catch me not getting into specifics with any of this until we’re within range of the convection allowing models (a wise idea in general, but especially so given how Monday’s event unfolded), but yes...

The wind is like this every April in OKC. Don’t worry, it’ll calm down just in time for the humidity to kick in and make us wish that June through August were our windy months lol.

The OKC location is horribly run compared to the Midwest City and Moore locations, and I don’t understand why.

I am interested in next Tuesday but wondering if it will ultimately be more of a heavy rain threat than a severe weather threat. Need something to take my mind off of how poorly my predictions on...

Not a large enough area (for comparison, Wheeler is 150 acres) and not enough density for this to make any significant impact on this part of the core.

It would take a change in the current storm evolution for OKC proper to get anything, IMO. Doesn't mean it can't happen, but certainly think the severe weather threat in OKC proper has decreased...

Everything appears to be splitting OKC proper at the moment. Will have to see if anything develops in the gap to the SE of the current convection. Also possible that a storm could become dominant and...

The storm mode is looking to be very messy, but you can see that the entire area of convection continues to slowly intensify. Several areas of lightning are starting to be picked up as well.