Thread: A Poll Review - President, Senate, and House

I wonder if that NC number will drift blue as we put some time between their same-sex marriage vote and the poll.

first thanks for this post .. very nice ...

second shouldn't the president toss up be 332 - 206 ... mizzou and NC for Romney

Originally Posted by BoulderSooner

first thanks for this post .. very nice ...

second shouldn't the president toss up be 332 - 206 ... mizzou and NC for Romney

Yeah you are right. Maybe I was drifting off when I added it up.

I did go back and look at NC again, since HJ pointed it out. Romney has been losing his lead in that state it appears now. Latest poll out this past week by PPP had Obama +1. So things might be moving more towards Obama now.

MO looks solid Romney. We haven't had any new polling since early June with Rasmussen having Romney ahead 7 points. PPP at the end of May showed Obama +1 which previous had Romney up anywhere from 1 to 6 points since last year. Rasmussen's previous poll had Romney up 3 and up 9 before that. So MO might still be up for grabs, but I think it'll go Red unless the urban areas turn out very well.

A couple other polls to toss in.

Obama Job Approval rating RCP Average as of yesterday is now 46.6 Approve, 48.9 Disapprove. So pretty evenly split where it has been since February. No real trend either way. His peak disapproval was in Aug '11 of 53% and has been falling since.

Overall Obama vs. Romney has Obama +1.2 with the trend pretty stagnant as well.

Obama favorability is +6.5 Favorable (51.3 Favorable, 44.8 Unfavorable).
Romney is -0.1 Unfavorable (43.8 Favorable, 43.9 Unfavorable).

Generic Congress Vote is in favor of Democrats +1.3 with things pretty back and forth still.

Update to the Presidential Electoral Outlook. Information based on data received from this past week. I'll try to keep an update once a week on these changes.

• Colorado (9) - Obama +3 - No new data.
• Florida (29) - Obama +0.9 down from +1.7 - Both candidates showed declines.
• Iowa (6) - Obama +2.5 - No new data.
• Michigan (16) - Obama +1.8 - No new data.
• Missouri (10) - Romney + 3 - No new data.
• Nevada (6) - Obama +5.3 - No new data.
• New Hampshire (4) - Obama + 5.7 - No new data.
• North Carolina (15) - Romney +1.2 down from +2 - Both candidates had up ticks in their numbers, Obama gained more.
• Ohio (18) - Obama +2.6 - No new data.
• Virginia (13) - Obama +3.0 up from +2.4 - Obama gained a little, Romney lost a little.
• Wisconsin (10) - Obama +4.4 up from +3.5 - Romney flat and Obama gained undecideds.

Still no major shifts. Florida and North Carolina could very well be the nail biters. Even if these flop around, that still gives Obama 318 vs. Romney 220. The next three closest races are Iowa, Michigan and Ohio. Typical the person who wins Ohio wins the election. In this case though those three only give Romney 40 electoral votes which still leaves him 10 short. The next option is Virginia and that would be enough to put him over. I would expect to see plenty of campaign stops in those 3-4 states to get momentum going.

We got some new polling date for several Battleground States.

• Colorado (9) - Obama +2.9 down from +3.0.
• Florida (29) - Obama +0.4 down from +0.9. Both Romney & Obama continue to slide as undecideds increase.
• Iowa (6) - Obama +1.3 down from +2.5. New PPP poll which had Obama +10 in early May got replaced showing +5.
• Michigan (16) - Obama +1.8 - No new data.
• Missouri (10) - Romney + 3 - No new data.
• Nevada (6) - Obama +5.3 - No new data.
• New Hampshire (4) - Obama +5.3 down from +5.7.
• North Carolina (15) - Romney +1.2 down from +2 - Both candidates had up ticks in their numbers, Obama gained more.
• Ohio (18) - Obama +3.8 up from +2.6. Looks to be even exchange with Obama up equal to Romney's decrease.
• Virginia (13) - Obama +2.0 down from +3.0. Obama lost a bit while Romney gained a roughly 0.1%
• Wisconsin (10) - Obama +4.4. No new data.

Thanks for continuing to post this stuff. It's nice to get it all in one place and without biased analysis.

Here is an update. I'm also going to add in the "leaning" states below the typical toss up to see what is going on in the states that aren't obvious "for sure" wins.

• Colorado (9) - Obama +2.9 - No new data.
• Florida (29) - Obama +1.1 up from +0.4. Obama had a slide the last couple of weeks but started to reverse, Romney was flight but has started to slide more.
• Iowa (6) - Obama +1.3 - No new data.
• Michigan (16) - Obama +1.8 - No new data.
• Missouri (10) - Romney + 3 - No new data.
• Nevada (6) - Obama +5.2 down from +5.3- No new data.
• New Hampshire (4) - Obama +5.3 - No new data.
• North Carolina (15) - Romney +0.4 down from +1.2 - Obama on a steady surge since Mid June. Romney has been mostly flat. Around 6.4% undecideds in NC right now and some are starting to break for Obama.
• Ohio (18) - Obama +4.3 up from +3.8. Continue to see Romney lose ground as Obama gains more.
• Virginia (13) - Obama +1.2 down from +2.0. Obama has slide the last couple of weeks, but Romney has stayed flat. This would highlight more are going back to undecided instead of picking a candidate.
• Wisconsin (10) - Obama +4.8 up from +4.4. Overall they remain fairly flight, but Romney has a slight downward trend and Obama the opposite. All recent July polling shows Obama with a 6 to 8 point lead right now.

Favored Romney Leaning States

• Arizona (11) - Romney +6.8 - Romney steady increase since April with Obama flat.
• Georgia (16) - Romney +10.0 - Romney maintaining lead, hasn't had a lower than 7 pt lead since Winter but no new polling since May.
• Indiana (11) - Romney +9.0 - Only one official poll in March, so not much to go off of.
• Montana (3) - Romney +9.0 - Romney has been pretty consistent here.
• South Carolina (9) - Romney +3.0 up from +4.4. No new polling data since December last year.

Favored Obama Leaning States

• Minnesota (10) - Obama +11.6 - Consistent lead.
• New Mexico (5) - Obama +10.7 - Seems fairly strong with even right leaning pollsters showing 16 pt leads.
• Oregon (7) - Obama +8.6 - Obama steady with Romney fairly flat.
• Pennsylvania (20) - Obama +7.4 - Obama got a bump in April and has been flat since. Romney has been flat since October.

Looks like I called NC. Any idea what the convention bumps usually do for each party and/or for incumbents/challengers.

Originally Posted by HewenttoJared

Looks like I called NC. Any idea what the convention bumps usually do for each party and/or for incumbents/challengers.

They can be small, Obama's wasn't that great after the last one, but Bill Clinton had one of the largest ever after his in '92 getting a 30 point bump. It will be interesting to see how things go. I wouldn't be shocked to see each one getting a 5-10 point bounce of theirs, but the last one seems to always have an advantage.

Umm you are missing Oklahoma polling...Should see the race tightening around here

Some decent moves this week in the polls. Here is the update.

Electoral Count - No Toss Ups
Obama - 332
Romney - 206

• Colorado (9) - Obama +3.0 up from +2.9 - Both had slight declines, but Romney just lost more.
• Florida (29) - Obama +1.1. - No new data.
• Iowa (6) - Obama +1.3 - No new data.
• Michigan (16) - Obama +4.2 up from +1.8 - Romney took a huge hit in the latest polling by PPP & Rasmussen. Mitchell's new poll shows Romney +1.
• Missouri (10) - Romney +5 up from +3 - Only about 1 poll a month since May now for MO, but latest has Romney up about about 9. The poll also added Gary Johnson (Libertarian) to the poll and he is pull about 2% securing about 2% of Democrats and 4% of independents. There is 9% undecided overall still.
• Nevada (6) - Obama +4.6 down from +5.2 - Obama had a bit of a slide and Romney was mostly flat. Rasmussen was the latest new poll and had Obama up 5. This replaced their last poll used in the average from April (quite a while ago) that had him up 8.
• New Hampshire (4) - Obama +3.0 down from +5.3 - New poll from WMUR showing Obama up 4. This replaced a poll in the average from early May done by PPP that had him up 12.
• North Carolina (15) - Romney +0.4. -No new data.
• Ohio (18) - Obama +5.0 up from +4.3. Obama continues to show modest gains in the latest trend with Romney losing a lot of support very fast. Polling that had Romney ahead in May (Purple and Rasmussen) all have flipped to Obama.
• Virginia (13) - Obama +1.2 - No new data.
• Wisconsin is now credited in the favored/leaning column for Obama and no longer a Toss Up.

Favored Romney Leaning States

• Arizona (11) - Romney +6.8 - No new data.
• Georgia (16) - Romney +10.0 - No new data.
• Indiana (11) - Romney +9.0 - No new data.
• Montana (3) - Romney +9.0 - No new data.
• South Carolina (9) - Romney +3.0 - No new data.

Favored Obama Leaning States

• Minnesota (10) - Obama +10.5 down from +11.6 - New poll in the average brought Obama down a little.
• New Mexico (5) - Obama +10.7 - No new data.
• Oregon (7) - Obama +8.6 - No new data.
• Pennsylvania (20) - Obama +5.8 down from +7.4- Obama is consistent in the +4 to +7 range for the last 2 months. We are seeing of the more dramatic polls (+12) fall off. Romney had some gains, but mostly appears to be undecided pick ups.
• Wisconsin (10) - Obama +7.0 up from +4.8. Trend in Wisconsin has been in Obama's favor for awhile, so the state has been moved to a favored win by Obama. Obama is picking up mostly undecideds but Romney has lost a little.

Debates will mean a LOT in this election...You betcha

Yep.

In other polling news...

Romney’s problem? Americans don’t like him as much as Obama, polls say.

If you believe the polls, it would appear there is one big factor standing in the way of Mitt Romney being elected president: Americans don’t like him as well as they do Barack Obama.

That was confirmed again in a new USA Today-Gallup survey in which respondents gave Romney higher marks on the economic issues, which voters say they care most about this year. But President Obama crushed Romney — 60 percent to 30 percent — on the question of which of the two was more likable.

In April, a Washington Post-ABC News poll found an even larger gap, with 64 percent of those surveyed describing Obama as the friendlier, more likable candidate, and only 26 percent saying that about Romney.

<snip>

In every presidential election for the past two decades, the candidate viewed as more likable was the one who won.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politi...KGX_story.html

Originally Posted by Easy180

Umm you are missing Oklahoma polling...Should see the race tightening around here

Seriously? So Romney might only carry the state 69% to 31%? Be still my heart.

So Romney's biggest obstacle is ... Romney? That'll work.

Originally Posted by kevinpate

Seriously? So Romney might only carry the state 69% to 31%? Be still my heart.

Trending Obama now here in OK with low unemployment, housing doing ok and gas prices closer to $3 than $4

Romney's lead is now down to 75-25 lol

Today's Update doesn't have much.

Electoral Count - No Toss Ups (116 votes)
Obama - 332
Romney - 206

• Colorado (9) - Obama +3.0 - No new data.
• Florida (29) - Obama +0.6 down from 1.1. - All polling from June has been flushed out, so a few more polls with Obama in the lead have been dropped from the average, but those polling services haven't done a new poll yet. Romney has gone up about a half a point. Obama is also still trending up, which indicates undecideds are decreasing some.
• Iowa (6) - Obama +1.3 - No new data.
• Michigan (16) - Obama +4.2 - No new data.
• Nevada (6) - Obama +5.3 up from +4.6 - Last slide is a bit over as Obama starts regaining some of his lead as Romney falls off.
• New Hampshire (4) - Obama +3.0 -No new data.
• North Carolina (15) - Romney +0.4. -No new data.
• Ohio (18) - Obama +5.0 -No new data.
• Virginia (13) - Obama +1.2 - No new data.

Favored Romney Leaning States (60 votes)

• Arizona (11) - Romney +6.8 - No new data.
• Georgia (16) - Romney +10.0 - No new data.
• Indiana (11) - Romney +9.0 - No new data.
• Missouri (10) - Romney +6 up from +5 - Finally some new polling has Romney up 9. This moves Missouri over here to the Leaning/favored column now.
• Montana (3) - Romney +9.0 - No new data.
• South Carolina (9) - Romney +3.0 - No new data.

Favored Obama Leaning States (52 votes)

• Minnesota (10) - Obama +10.5 -No new data.
• New Mexico (5) - Obama +10.7 - No new data.
• Oregon (7) - Obama +8.6 - No new data.
• Pennsylvania (20) - Obama +5.8 -No new data.
• Wisconsin (10) - Obama +6.0 down from +7.0. Obama is mostly flat here and Romney picked up a few undecideds he lost a couple weeks ago.

Electoral Count - No Toss Ups
Obama - 332
Romney - 206

Toss Up States (110 votes)

• Colorado (9) - Obama +3.0 - No new data.
• Florida (29) - Obama +1.4 up from +0.6. - Two new polls added in the last couple of days showing Obama with a lead. Both candidates are trending up, so this is likely getting undecideds to make a pick.
• Iowa (6) - Obama +1.3 - No new data.
• Nevada (6) - Obama +5.3 - No new data.
• New Hampshire (4) - Obama +3.0 -No new data.
• North Carolina (15) - Romney +0.8 up from +0.4. - New Rasmussen poll has Romney up 5 from its previous 3.
• Ohio (18) - Obama +4.8 down from +5.0 - New Quinnipiac poll is +6 from the last one they had of +9. Both candidates continue to trend up as undecideds make a pick.
• Virginia (13) - Obama +2.8 up from +1.2 - Obama and Romney doing almost an event exchange in the last week with Obama jumping up and Romney going down.

Favored Romney Leaning States (60 votes)

• Arizona (11) - Romney +8.7 up from +6.8 - Looks to be an even exchange with Romney up and Obama down.
• Georgia (16) - Romney +9.3 down from +10.0 - Romney is still over 50% here, but polls have the gap closing slightly as some undecideds broke for Obama.
• Indiana (11) - Romney +9.0 - No new data.
• Missouri (10) - Romney +5.7 down from +6 - New polls continue to come in showing the gap is decreasing some. Still, Romney is in control here.
• Montana (3) - Romney +9.0 - No new data.
• South Carolina (9) - Romney +3.0 - No new data.

Favored Obama Leaning States (68 votes)

• Michigan (16) - Obama +6.3 up from +4.2 - Michigan is now moved to the favored category. A couple new polls this past week, including a traditional right leaning poll, have Obama up 6 each. Romney has been on a sharp decline for the last 2 weeks.
• Minnesota (10) - Obama +10.5 -No new data.
• New Mexico (5) - Obama +10.7 - No new data.
• Oregon (7) - Obama +8.6 - No new data.
• Pennsylvania (20) - Obama +7.0 up from +5.8 -Both candidates continue to move up with undecideds shrinking. Obama hasn't had a sustained decline in PA since last September.
• Wisconsin (10) - Obama +6.0 - No new data.

Senate Polling
Democrats - Not Running/Safe: 37 (+5 Leaning, +5 Likely, +2 Toss Up)
Republicans - Not Running/Safe: 42 (+1 Leaning, +1 Likely, +7 Toss Up)

Toss Up States
Florida - Mack GOP +0.2 - This race had Nelsom (DEM) in control for much of it, strong run bot Mack this summer. Latest polls though show Nelson making a strong rebound over the last week.
Indiana - Mourdock GOP +2
Massachusetts - Warrent DEM +0.1 - Both candidates have essentially been event since May. They even have the exact same polling trends which is quite interesting.
Missouri - GOP leads here, they have a primary to do yet before candidates are picked.
Montana - Rehberg GOP - +2
Nevada - Heller GOP +3.7 - Consistent lead for much of the year.
North Dakota - Berg GOP +5.0
Virginia - Allen GOP +0.4 - Back and forth race all year long.
Wisconsin - Baldwin DEM is up against all the GOP candidates still needing to do their primary.

Leans GOP
Arizona - GOP Leads here, but still a primary to go.

Leans DEM
Connecticut - DEM leads here, but still primaries for both sides to go.
Hawaii - Strongly leans DEM here, but primary still to go.
Michigan - Stabenow DEM +11.2
New Mexico - Heinrich DEM +5.5
Ohio - Brown DEM +7.7

Here is the update with the new data that is out. Expect things to remain like this until the conventions start and then we'll see Romney with a bump early and then Obama with a bump after his.

Electoral Count - No Toss Ups
Obama - 332
Romney - 206

Toss Up States (110 votes)

• Colorado (9) - Obama +1.2 down from 3.0 - 3 new polls out...CBS/NYT has Romney +5, Rasmussen tied, and PPP Obama +6. Looking at the overall trend Obama remains fairly flat, but Romney picked up undecideds this week which allowed him to close the game.
• Florida (29) - Obama +1.4 - No new data.
• Iowa (6) - Obama +1.3 - No new data.
• Nevada (6) - Obama +5.3 - No new data.
• New Hampshire (4) - Obama +3.0 -No new data.
• North Carolina (15) - Romney +1.0 up from +0.8. - New PPP poll is out with Obama +3, but looking at the trend Romney remained flat with Obama gaining undecideds.
• Ohio (18) - Obama +4.8 - No new data.
• Virginia (13) - Obama +3.0 up from 2.8 - Obama continues to gain ground here with Romney falling back some.

Favored Romney Leaning States (60 votes)

• Arizona (11) - Romney +8.7 - No new data.
• Georgia (16) - Romney +9.3 - No new data.
• Indiana (11) - Romney +16 - There have been a total of 2 polls this entire year, one in March showing Romney +9 and this past week Rasmussen showing Romney +16. No trends here since data is so scarce, but looks solid for Romney.
• Missouri (10) - Romney +5.7 - No new data.
• Montana (3) - Romney +9.0 - No new data.
• South Carolina (9) - Romney +3.0 - No new data.

Favored Obama Leaning States (68 votes)

• Michigan (16) - Obama +6.3 - No new data.
• Minnesota (10) - Obama +10.5 -No new data.
• New Mexico (5) - Obama +10.7 - No new data.
• Oregon (7) - Obama +8.6 - No new data.
• Pennsylvania (20) - Obama +7.0 - No new data.
• Wisconsin (10) - Obama +6.0 unchanged from +6.0 - One new poll coming out, but it keeps things unchanged.

Today didn't bring really any new state specific polls (which I feel are more important than over all general polls), but wanted to post there here since I found them interesting.

Thursday, August 09

Race/Topic (Click to Sort)	Poll	Results	Spread
General Election: Romney vs. Obama	CNN/Opinion Research	Obama 52, Romney 45	Obama +7
General Election: Romney vs. Obama	FOX News	Obama 49, Romney 40	Obama +9
General Election: Romney vs. Obama	Gallup Tracking	Obama 47, Romney 45	Obama +2
General Election: Romney vs. Obama	Rasmussen Tracking	Obama 43, Romney 47	Romney +4
Virginia Senate - Allen vs. Kaine	Rasmussen Reports	Kaine 46, Allen 46	Tie
President Obama Job Approval	CNN/Opinion Research	Approve 49, Disapprove 48	Approve +1
President Obama Job Approval	Gallup	Approve 46, Disapprove 48	Disapprove +2
President Obama Job Approval	Rasmussen Reports	Approve 46, Disapprove 53	Disapprove +7
President Obama Job Approval	FOX News	Approve 49, Disapprove 46	Approve +3

RCP Obama +4.4

Interesting article from yesterday's V and CO polls at http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
538 is a wonderful site for anyone who gets excited about big data crunching.