Thread: A Poll Review - President, Senate, and House

Some results from over the weekend. I expect we'll see a flood of new polling come in tomorrow that will help evaluate the post debate response.

Sunday, October 07

Race/Topic (Click to Sort)	Poll	Results	Spread
General Election: Romney vs. Obama	Gallup Tracking	Obama 49, Romney 46	Obama +3
General Election: Romney vs. Obama	Rasmussen Tracking	Obama 47, Romney 49	Romney +2
Ohio Senate - Mandel vs. Brown	Rasmussen Reports	Brown 46, Mandel 46	Tie
Massachusetts Senate - Brown vs. Warren	Western NE University	Warren 50, Brown 45	Warren +5
New York 27th District - Collins vs. Hochul	Siena	Collins 47, Hochul 47	Tie
President Obama Job Approval	Gallup	Approve 48, Disapprove 46	Approve +2
President Obama Job Approval	Rasmussen Reports	Approve 50, Disapprove 49	Approve +1

Saturday, October 06

Race/Topic (Click to Sort)	Poll	Results	Spread
Wisconsin: Romney vs. Obama	PPP (D)	Obama 49, Romney 47	Obama +2
Colorado: Romney vs. Obama	University of Denver	Obama 47, Romney 43	Obama +4
Colorado: Romney vs. Obama	Gravis Marketing	Obama 46, Romney 49	Romney +3
Generic Congressional Vote	USA Today/Gallup	Democrats 47, Republicans 46	Democrats +1

A good amount of Post Debate #1 data. We definitely saw a very strong push towards Romney due to his reported performance. Ohio is now back under Toss Up as the race narrowed a bit there.

Electoral Count - No Toss Ups
Obama - 303 down from 347
Romney - 235 down from 191

Toss Up States (106 votes)

• Colorado (9) - Obama +0.2 down from 3.1 - Even exchange between Obama and Romney since last review. Obama in the last day has trended up a bit more after being down.
• Florida (29) - Tied changed from Obama +2.0 - Obama took a huge nose dive here, but Romney is only up slightly. We essentially saw a lot of people go to undecided and not to Romney.
• Iowa (6) - Obama +3.2 down from 3.5 - Obama had a slight nudge down, but is flat now. Romney is up a tad.
• Missouri (10) - Romney +5.2 up from 5.0 - Romney gain a bit back post debate, but Obama is also up as well. Romney just gained back more undecideds.
• Nevada (6) - Obama +4.6 down from +5.2 - Obama is up slightly but so is Romney.
• North Carolina (15) - Romney +0.8 up from Tied- After Romney tanked a bunch, he regained about half of the previous support. Obama is overall flat.
• Ohio (18) - Obama +3.0 down from 5.5 - Obama really didn't take a massive hit in Ohio at all, he is just down slightly. Romney however is up to his highest levels ever in the last year, gaining most of his votes from undecideds.
• Virginia (13) - Obama +0.3 down from 3.5 - Big Romney bounce post debate and Obama equally gave up the ground. Latest poll does have Obama recovering slightly.

Favored Romney Leaning States (31 votes)

• Arizona (11) - Romney +6.5 up from 5.7 - Romney has leveled out some and Obama is flat as well.
• Indiana (11) - Romney +12 - No new data.
• South Carolina (9) - Romney +3.0 - No new data.

Favored Obama Leaning States (72 votes)

• Michigan (16) - Obama +10.0 - No new data.
• Minnesota (10) - Obama +8.4 - No new data.
• New Hampshire (4) - Obama +6.0 - No new data.
• New Mexico (5) - Obama +9.2 - No new data.
• Oregon (7) - Obama +8.5 - No new data.
• Pennsylvania (20) - Obama +7.5 down from 8.0 - Obama continues to a slow climb and Romney jumped a bit as well.
• Wisconsin (10) - Obama +6.6 down from 6.7 - Pretty equal exchanges here. Obama is down slightly and Romney is up slightly, but still away from his highs.

Pew Poll: Romney Leads Obama - Business Insider

In a shocking one-month swing, Mitt Romney stormed into the lead over President Barack Obama in a new Pew Research poll conducted after Romney's consensus victory in the first presidential debate.

The poll finds a 12-point swing among likely voters. In Pew's last poll, conducted in the middle of September, Obama led Romney 51-43 among likely voters. Now, Romney leads 49-45.

The shift is due to Romney shoring up key areas of strength among likely voters and improving his overall image, much of which can be attributed to his strang debate performance. Sixty-six percent of voters thought Romney won the debate, compared with just 20 percent who said Obama won. Among Independents, Romney won by an astounding 78-14 margin.

Romney's overall favorability rating climbed 5 points from September and hit 50 percent for the first time ever in Pew's survey. Notably, he bests Obama, whose favorability rating has dropped from 55 percent to 49 percent.

He also has boosted his standing with voters on the economy and jobs. He now leads Obama by 8 points on which candidate would best "improve the job situation." Last month, Obama led Romney by a point in that category.

Romney also saw significant gains among women. Last month, women preferred Obama by an astounding 18 points. Now, they are equally split between both candidates at 47 percent apiece.
The poll sampled 36 percent Republicans, 31 percent Democrats and 30 percent Independents. It's notable because most polls over the past two years have found higher samples of Democrats, leading to recent charges of bias and so-called "unskewing" of results.

Romney pulls ahead in Pew Research Poll.

Romney Pulls Ahead in Pew Poll as Gallup Gives Obama Lead - Businessweek

Originally Posted by Bellaboo

Romney pulls ahead in Pew Research Poll.

Romney Pulls Ahead in Pew Poll as Gallup Gives Obama Lead - Businessweek

OU48 already posted it, no need to duplicate information here.

Some other updates for today...

Tuesday, October 09

Race/Topic (Click to Sort)	Poll	Results	Spread
General Election: Romney vs. Obama	Gallup Tracking	Romney 49, Obama 47	Romney +2
General Election: Romney vs. Obama	Rasmussen Tracking	Romney 48, Obama 48	Tie
Ohio: Romney vs. Obama	ARG	Obama 47, Romney 48	Romney +1
Pennsylvania: Romney vs. Obama	Siena	Obama 43, Romney 40	Obama +3
Nevada: Romney vs. Obama	Rasmussen Reports	Obama 47, Romney 47	Tie
Colorado: Romney vs. Obama	ARG	Romney 50, Obama 46	Romney +4
Minnesota: Romney vs. Obama	PPP (D)	Obama 53, Romney 43	Obama +10
North Carolina: Romney vs. Obama	Gravis Marketing	Romney 50, Obama 41	Romney +9
North Dakota: Romney vs. Obama	Mason-Dixon	Romney 54, Obama 40	Romney +14
Massachusetts: Romney vs. Obama	WBUR/MassINC	Obama 52, Romney 36	Obama +16
Massachusetts Senate - Brown vs. Warren	WBUR/MassINC	Warren 45, Brown 48	Brown +3
North Dakota Senate - Berg vs. Heitkamp	Mason-Dixon	Berg 47, Heitkamp 47	Tie
Connecticut Senate - McMahon vs. Murphy	Rasmussen Reports	Murphy 51, McMahon 46	Murphy +5
Pennsylvania Senate - Smith vs. Casey	Siena	Casey 44, Smith 35	Casey +9
Minnesota Senate - Bills vs. Klobuchar	PPP (D)	Klobuchar 57, Bills 31	Klobuchar +26
North Carolina Governor - McCrory vs. Dalton	Gravis Marketing	McCrory 50, Dalton 33	McCrory +17
North Dakota At-Large - Cramer vs. Gulleson	Mason-Dixon	Cramer 49, Gulleson 37	Cramer +12
President Obama Job Approval	Rasmussen Reports	Approve 49, Disapprove 50	Disapprove +1
Obama: Favorable/Unfavorable	ABC News/Wash Post	Favorable 55, Unfavorable 44	Favorable +11
Romney: Favorable/Unfavorable	ABC News/Wash Post	Favorable 47, Unfavorable 51	Unfavorable +4

Daily Swing State Tracking Poll - Rasmussen Reports™

The full Swing State tracking update offers Rasmussen Reader subscribers a combined view of the results from 11 key states won by President Obama in 2008 and thought to be competitive in 2012. The states collectively hold 146 Electoral College votes and include Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

Forty-six percent (46%) of these Swing State voters are now “certain” they will vote for Romney and will not change their minds. Forty percent (40%) are certain they will vote for the president.

In 2008, Obama won these states by a combined margin of 53% to 46%, virtually identical to his national margin.

Originally Posted by ou48A

Forty-six percent (46%) of these Swing State voters are now “certain”
they will vote for Romney and will not change their minds. Forty percent
(40%) are certain they will vote for the president.

In 2008, Obama won these states by a combined margin of 53% to 46%,
virtually identical to his national margin.

I read the article today. Isn't Rasmussen the pollster who has been 100%
accurate over the past several presidential elections? I believe he is.

new polls out in Ohio/New Hampshire

CNN 51-47 BO in ohio
American Research Group 48-47 MR OHIO

WMUR in New Hampshire 47 -41 BO down from a 15 point gap last week

Obama Keeps Smaller Leads In Ohio, NH: Polls

Thomson Reuters has Romney leading 45 to 44.

A lot of polling data came out today, I'll do a new update before the VP debate to set a baseline to where we are then.

Shaping up to be one hell of an election night! Exciting!

I think the VPs should come out and do a flex off. If uncle joe comes out shirtless, or wearing a mardi gras hat, he can lock up my vote.

Alright. Here is the look at the polls before tonight's debate.

Things have definitely tightened up and a lot of starts are in the Toss Up category due to the volatility in the recent poll numbers. Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are all now under the Toss Up category.

Electoral Count - No Toss Ups
Obama - 294 down from 303
Romney - 244 up from 235

Toss Up States (156 votes)

• Colorado (9) - Romney +0.6 up from Obama +0.2 - Pretty even swap of voters in CO. Both are down slightly this week.
• Florida (29) - Tied changed from Obama +2.0 - No new data.
• Iowa (6) - Obama +3.2 - No new data.
• Michigan (16) - Obama +3.7 down from 10.0 - Several new polls show Obama up 2 or 3 points now. Romney has not gained an even number of voters Obama has lost, so many are going undecided. Of the 4 polls used in the average: Baydoun is up 1 pt, EPIC is down 7 pts, Gravis is down 2 pts, and Detroit News is down 7 pts but still in Obama's favor.
• Missouri (10) - Romney +5.2 - No new data.
• Nevada (6) - Obama +1.6 down from 4.6 - Pretty even exchange of voters between candidates. In the last few days Romney has started to give up a few.
• New Hampshire (4) - Obama +4.5 down from 6.0 - Obama didn't get hit nearly as hard here as other states. He is down slightly and Romney is up a good deal thanks to undecideds.
• North Carolina (15) - Romney +3.0 up from 0.8 - Obama continues to drop here and Romney is at the 2nd highest peak so far he's ever been in NC.
• Ohio (18) - Obama +1.6 down from 3.0 - Obama may have leveled out finally. He regained some voters this week. Romney surged up with undecideds, but has gave up a little room.
• Pennsylvania (20) - Obama +4.5 down from 7.5 - Obama dropped a bit, and Romney has continued on a very gradual up tick. No real major impacts here from the last debate.
• Virginia (13) - Obama +0.6 up from 0.3- Romney bounce may have flattened out. Obama has started to regain voters.
• Wisconsin (10) - Obama +2.3 down from 6.6 - Obama continues flat to down slightly and Romney took a surge from undecideds.

Favored Romney Leaning States (31 votes)

• Arizona (11) - Romney +7.6 up from 6.5 - Obama continues flat, Romney is leveled out as well.
• Indiana (11) - Romney +12 - No new data.
• South Carolina (9) - Romney +3.0 - No new data.

Favored Obama Leaning States (22 votes)

• Minnesota (10) - Obama +9.3 up from 8.4 - Obama gained a few back as Romney has fallen.
• New Mexico (5) - Obama +9.3 up from 9.2 - Both candidates are essentially flat.
• Oregon (7) - Obama +8.5 - No new data.

Originally Posted by Prunepicker

I read the article today. Isn't Rasmussen the pollster who has been 100%
accurate over the past several presidential elections? I believe he is.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows President Obama attracting support from 48% of voters nationwide, while Mitt Romney earns the vote from 47%.

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll - Rasmussen Reports™

Just wanted to point that out.

Originally Posted by Lord Helmet

Shaping up to be one hell of an election night! Exciting!

Indeed...but we all expected that.

Originally Posted by venture79

Just wanted to point that out.

That was nice of you.
Tonight, after the vp debate, and when unemployment returns to 8.1% after
that large state sends the data, I believe Obama's numbers will drop.

Originally Posted by Prunepicker

That was nice of you.
Tonight, after the vp debate, and when unemployment returns to 8.1% after
that large state sends the data, I believe Obama's numbers will drop.

Of course what you believe has no bearing on anything. What will happen will happen.

Felt it was time for a post-debate post now. A good number of polls are coming in today, so this just a snapshot of it right now. A couple state changes.

South Carolina is now Likely Romney and will be removed from tracking. New Mexico is now Likely Obama and is removed as well. Missouri is out of the toss up category again and back to Favored Romney. National polling shows everything is tied back up, so time to focus on the electoral side of things.

Electoral Count - No Toss Ups
Obama - 294 - no change
Romney - 244 - no change

Toss Up States (146 votes)

• Colorado (9) - Romney +0.6 - No new data.
• Florida (29) - Romney +2.8 up from Tied- Big surge by Romney lately in Florida. Obama is just slightly down from the last update.
• Iowa (6) - Obama +2.7 down from 3.2 - Obama is flat and Romney ticked up slightly.
• Michigan (16) - Obama +4.4 up from 3.7 - Obama's drop has halted for a bit. Romney still has ticked up a bit.
• Nevada (6) - Obama +1.6 - No new data.
• New Hampshire (4) - Obama +0.7 down from 4.5 - Obama lost bit here, but the major contributing factor here is Romney picking up a large number of previously undecideds.
• North Carolina (15) - Romney +4.7 up from 3.0 - Obama continues to slide and Romney is now at his highest level ever in the state.
• Ohio (18) - Obama +2.2 up from 1.6 - Romney has fallen off some and Obama has gained back about half of what he previously lost.
• Pennsylvania (20) - Obama +4.5 - No new data.
• Virginia (13) - Obama +0.8 up from 0.6- Obama continues to creep up higher than Romney has, but both are still trending up.
• Wisconsin (10) - Obama +2.3 - No new data.

Favored Romney Leaning States (32 votes)

• Arizona (11) - Romney +5.3 down from 7.6 - Obama continues to be mainly flat and Romney keep dropping as voters go undecided.
• Indiana (11) - Romney +12 - No new data.
• Missouri (10) - Romney +5.2 - No new data.

Favored Obama Leaning States (17 votes)

• Minnesota (10) - Obama +8.0 down from 9.3 - Latest poll has a few more going undecided with Obama dropping a bit, but Romney staying flat.
• Oregon (7) - Obama +8.5 - No new data.

how can their be no change when florida is now romney from tied?

Originally Posted by BoulderSooner

how can their be no change when florida is now romney from tied?

Florida was already credited under Romney in the last update. This was done since he was ahead in all the recent polling at the time and the average just hadn't caught up yet.

Originally Posted by venture79

Florida was already credited under Romney in the last update. This was done since he was ahead in all the recent polling at the time and the average just hadn't caught up yet.

gotcha thanks

Very telling news

Romney 50%, Obama 46% Among Likely Voters

This is very good news.

More great news... Romney is increases his lead….things are trending the right way.

According to TV reports nobody that has lead in this poll with a 50% or greater margin in Mid-October has lost the presidential election


Romney is now up 51% to 45% in this Gallup poll

http://www.gallup.com/poll/157817/el...ma-romney.aspx

but only up .5 on RCP average and that's pre 2nd debate. Besides don't you guys say polls don't mean anything?