Palin's false outrage and lies aren't doing much good.

Ya, you betcha, maverick joe six pack America doesn't seem to be buying "folksy and uniformed makes me qualified" shtick.

Nor are they buying the grumpy old man shtick that McCain has adopted.

In the past 20 days, only two polls have shown McCain with a lead, none within the margin of error and none in the past 10 days.

Buckle up. Desperate mavericky pit bulls are likely to foam at the mouth and eat children and things are looking desperate as this latest volley of mud appears to, once again, be not gaining traction.

One has to wonder how many times do they have to trot out these old smoke screens before they'll understand that people are concerned about things other than some guy who's of no particular importance to Obama or all those "Joe six packs" Palin is supposed to be just like?

Poll Date Sample Obama (D) McCain (R) Spread

RCP Average
09/30 - 10/05
Obama +6.2
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 10/04 - 10/05 658 RV 49 43 Obama +6
CBS News 10/03 - 10/05 616 LV 48 45 Obama +3
CNN 10/03 - 10/05 694 LV 53 45 Obama +8
Gallup Tracking 10/03 - 10/05 2744 RV 50 42 Obama +8
Rasmussen Tracking 10/03 - 10/05 3000 LV 52 44 Obama +8
Hotline/FD Tracking 10/03 - 10/05 909 LV 47 41 Obama +6
Democracy Corps (D) 10/01 - 10/05 1000 LV 49 46 Obama +3
GW/Battleground Tracking 09/30 - 10/05 800 LV 50 43 Obama +7

It will be interesting to see what you have to say about these poll numbers when Obama loses.

I'm not claiming to predict the future. The topic is "TODAY'S POLLS."

My commentary has to do with what has happened in the past 20 days. That's all.
Any inference about the future is your speculation, not mine.

I've said--in my comment about pitbulls and eating children, that dirty tricks will abound.

Will they be convincing? Who knows. It's not been working UP TO NOW. That's all.

I'm not planning any celebrations.

I might suggest you hold off on yours. Gloating in advance of contests tends to make people learn to enjoy the taste of crow.

Isn't the Terminater dude in Cali gonna help McCain win that state? Is he ever gonna do something to help McCain?

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I'm not sure Arnold can do much to sway his state. At +13 up, Obama probably doesn't have to worry much about Cali just like at + 24 points, McCain won't worry much about OK.

California
RCP Average 09/05 - 09/25 -- 52.8 39.5 Obama +13.3
PPIC 09/09 - 09/16 1157 LV 50 40 Obama +10
SurveyUSA 09/23 - 09/25 661 LV 53 43 Obama +10
Rasmussen 09/22 - 09/22 500 LV 56 39 Obama +17
Field 09/05 - 09/14 830 LV 52 36 Obama +16

I would love if this could stay a thread just about polls and what impacts them and the discussion around them. Leave the policy debates and stuff in the others.

So today's RCP average is now updated...

RCP Average 10/01 - 10/07 -- 49.0 43.9 Obama +5.1
Gallup Tracking 10/05 - 10/07 2747 RV 52 41 Obama +11
Rasmussen Tracking 10/05 - 10/07 3000 LV 51 45 Obama +6
Reuters/CSpan/Zogby Tracking 10/05 - 10/07 1220 LV 47 45 Obama +2
Hotline/FD Tracking 10/05 - 10/07 904 LV 45 44 Obama +1
GW/Battleground Tracking 10/02 - 10/07 800 LV 49 45 Obama +4
Ipsos/McClatchy 10/02 - 10/06 858 RV 47 40 Obama +7
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 10/04 - 10/05 658 RV 49 43 Obama +6
CBS News 10/03 - 10/05 616 LV 48 45 Obama +3
CNN 10/03 - 10/05 694 LV 53 45 Obama +8
Democracy Corps (D) 10/01 - 10/05 1000 LV 49 46 Obama +3

------

The margin between McCain and Obama decreased a bit last night, as it did after the last debate. Usually always a little dip and then after a day or two they start moving a part. If Gallup is a guide...would expect Obama to climb a bit the next couple days. Which would mean McCain goes super negative now.

From the Electoral stand point...

Obama/Biden have around 221 that are pretty secure.
McCain/Palin have around 143 secured up.

Washington, New Mexico, Wisconsin and Michigan are leaning Obama - thats 43 more.

Georgia and West Virginia are leaning McCain - that's 20 more.

I expect McCain to get both of those states. Obama should lock up the four mentioned. So that makes it Obama 264 and McCain 163.

111 up for grabs...NV (5), CO (9), MO (11), IN (11), (OH) 20, VA (13), NC (15), and FL (27).

If the vote was today and polls validated, it would work out:

NV - Obama
CO - Obama
MO - Obama
IN - McCain
OH - Obama
VA - Obama
NC - Obama
FL - Obama

Which would work out to 364 Obama, 174 McCain. I don't think it will be that lopsided unless things just completely fall apart for McCain.

NV - Obama is only up by 3, so I could see that going McCain.
CO - Obama up by 4, but Bush did win it both times.
MO - Obama is now up over 6 here, so this requires watching.
IN - McCain is up by over 2, and I would expect it to stay red. Bush won it big both times.
OH - Obama keeps gaining, now up over 5. I would expect Obama to win this close depending on the weather in Cleveland and Toledo. Both areas are desperately hurting and it is interesting that Northwest Ohio especially always swings the state to the winner of the election. Bush won the Toledo area big, and took the state. Now that the area has unemployment approaching 10% and a severe recession there locally, I expect it to swing for Obama unless Southeast Ohio comes out strong (more rural area, traditionally GOP).
VA - Amazing to see this state in play. Obama is up almost 5 here, Bush won by 8 both times. Wouldn't be shocked to see McCain take it by 1 or 2 points.
NC - Ditto Virginia, except Bush won by over 12 both times. If this state flips, amazing shake up to traditionally safe ground for the GOP.
FL - Oh joy. 2004 rested on Ohio, and of course 2000 was all about here. Obama has gained the last week here, now up by over 5. Expect McCain's social security cuts (regardless of validity) to scare the crap out of the over 3 million retirees here.

So what does all this mean? Nothing, but its fun for number freaks.

More work for McCain...if Obama can secure the states in his pocket and leaning right now, he only needs one of any of the Toss Ups except Nevada. McCain must pick up every one except for Nevada.

This is going to be an exciting month.

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Is it that when the person touch 270 first wins? What if both gets past 270?

__________________
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I don't think that's possible, Thunder. But you should get points for optimism!

__________________
Doug
http://www.dougloudenback.com/downtownOKC.htm
http://www.dougloudenback.com/oklahomacity.htm
http://dougdawg.blogspot.com/

Venture, I agree that the numbers game is fun and interesting. I tend to follow the polls closely in every election cycle because I'm as attracted to the horse race as anybody.

Polls have tremendous fallibility but they're the only way of keeping track of the race before election day.

I like to read the pollster's methodologies and demographic breakdowns as well. I find it pretty fascinating.

I was polled by Gallup this summer. That was the first time I had been surveyed by a legit pollster. When Largent was running for Governor and later when Fallin was running for US House, I got push polls about every few weeks. It's interesting to receive those things although it surprises me that people fall for those things. They seem so obvious to me.

The question are always such false choices like:

Would you be more likely to vote for a candidate who wanted to sell your children into slavery, eat your dog, shave your wife's mustache, and steal the change from your sofa cusions, or a patriot who wants to fight the gay agenda, insure your rights to own any type of firearm you want up to and including nuclear ICBMs, and have the lord's prayer tatooed on the ass of each and every member of the ACLU?

I've never received a push poll from a democrat or any other party. I know they do them, I just don't live in a district that draws enough support from that side of the fence to warrant any significant investment in campaign resources.

Thunder...yes 270 to win. Both candidates cannot go over 270, but they can tie at 269. If that ever happens, it goes to the House of Representatives to elect the President. Each State gets 1 vote - not each rep. So States that are split half and half would be interesting on how they would go. Right now the Democrats would have 27 votes, the Republicans 20...and 3 toss up States with split delegations.

The Senate in the mean time votes on the Vice President, which would end up being more half and half right now...so that may get sticky. Dems are expected to pick up two seats this year, which would give them enough of a majority to avoid a tie.

However, if all that breaks down and neither house has selected a winner by inauguration day...say hello to President Palosi. /shiver

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Venture, I agree that the numbers game is fun and interesting. I tend to follow the polls closely in every election cycle because I'm as attracted to the horse race as anybody.

Polls have tremendous fallibility but they're the only way of keeping track of the race before election day.

I like to read the pollster's methodologies and demographic breakdowns as well. I find it pretty fascinating.

I was polled by Gallup this summer. That was the first time I had been surveyed by a legit pollster. When Largent was running for Governor and later when Fallin was running for US House, I got push polls about every few weeks. It's interesting to receive those things although it surprises me that people fall for those things. They seem so obvious to me.

The question are always such false choices like:

Would you be more likely to vote for a candidate who wanted to sell your children into slavery, eat your dog, shave your wife's mustache, and steal the change from your sofa cusions, or a patriot who wants to fight the gay agenda, insure your rights to own any type of firearm you want up to and including nuclear ICBMs, and have the lord's prayer tatooed on the ass of each and every member of the ACLU?

I've never received a push poll from a democrat or any other party. I know they do them, I just don't live in a district that draws enough support from that side of the fence to warrant any significant investment in campaign resources.

Here is the update through yesterday's polls.

RCP Average 10/01 - 10/09 -- 49.5 43.3 Obama +6.2
Rasmussen Tracking 10/07 - 10/09 3000 LV 50 45 Obama +5
Hotline/FD Tracking 10/07 - 10/09 838 LV 48 41 Obama +7
Reuters/CSpan/Zogby Tracking 10/07 - 10/09 1203 LV 48 43 Obama +5
GW/Battleground Tracking 10/06 - 10/09 800 LV 51 43 Obama +8
Gallup Tracking 10/06 - 10/08 2761 RV 52 41 Obama +11
Time 10/03 - 10/06 1053 LV 50 44 Obama +6
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 10/04 - 10/05 658 RV 49 43 Obama +6
CBS News 10/03 - 10/05 616 LV 48 45 Obama +3
CNN 10/03 - 10/05 694 LV 53 45 Obama +8
Ipsos/McClatchy 10/02 - 10/06 858 RV 47 40 Obama +7
Democracy Corps (D) 10/01 - 10/05 1000 LV 49 46 Obama +3

Continued upward movement nationally for Obama. Wouldn't expect any drastic changes until the next debate.

Electorally, there has been some movement. Based on RCP's average of state polls and such, some states have moved to toss up or leaning to a new candidate.

Virginia has been moved into a leaving for Obama state, from toss up.
Minnesota has been pulled back a bit from a solid Obama win, to just lean.
West Virginia has gone from leaving McCain to a Toss Up as Obama is now over 5 pts up there.
New Jersey and New Hampshire are considered solid for Obama.

These movements take Obama to 277, McCain to 158, and 103 for toss ups.
No toss ups would be Obama 353, McCain 185. So a little movement towards McCain since last post and that would be Missouri going to McCain.

Toss up states...

Ohio, Florida, Nevada, North Carolina, and Colorado are all 2-4 points positive for Obama.

Missouri, Indiana, and West Virginia are 1-3 points positive for McCain.

__________________
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Even Faux news has Obama up by 7.

Obama has gone up 1.3 points in the past day or so. This is a pretty big jump.

Anybody think the negative campaigning is backfiring?



RCP Average 10/01 - 10/09 -- 49.2 42.9 Obama +6.3
FOX News 10/08 - 10/09 900 RV 46 39 Obama +7
Gallup Tracking 10/07 - 10/09 2784 RV 51 41 Obama +10
Rasmussen Tracking 10/07 - 10/09 3000 LV 50 45 Obama +5
Hotline/FD Tracking 10/07 - 10/09 838 LV 48 41 Obama +7
Reuters/CSpan/Zogby Tracking 10/07 - 10/09 1203 LV 48 43 Obama +5
GW/Battleground Tracking 10/06 - 10/09 800 LV 51 43 Obama +8
Time 10/03 - 10/06 1053 LV 50 44 Obama +6
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 10/04 - 10/05 658 RV 49 43 Obama +6
CBS News 10/03 - 10/05 616 LV 48 45 Obama +3
CNN 10/03 - 10/05 694 LV 53 45 Obama +8
Ipsos/McClatchy 10/02 - 10/06 858 RV 47 40 Obama +7
Democracy Corps (D) 10/01 - 10/05 1000 LV 49 46 Obama +3

Newsweek's poll has just come out +10 in favor of Obama.

That brings the total to +6.6 and a 1.6 point jump in the past 36 hours or so.

Anybody think the negative campaigning is hurting him?

Anybody think that Palin attempting to incite riots around the country just might not be the kind of message Americans are responding to right now?

Palin has proven herself to be a very good attack dog. Unfortunately, the attempts at character assassination don't seem to be resonating as well as they did in 2004.

Or, it could be because Newsweek didn't airbrush her photo sufficiently as some of her surrogates are claiming.

Attack dog one minute, helpless glass menagerie princess the next. I think the word here is rookie.

I think the Obama scores are also being helped by millions at home seeing the highly educated folks that show up and speak at McCain's rallies

Unless the stock market goes up by a grand or so in the next couple of weeks we will get our last glimpse of Palin on November 5th or 6th

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Dr. Spaceman: Now Jenna, medically speaking for your height your weight puts you what we call the "disgusting" range. Fortunately there are solutions. For example, crystal meth has been shown to be very effective. How important is tooth retention to you?

I think McCain was probably gratified at first that Palin was drawing such big crowds. Then it eventually dawned on him and his strategists that her 'base' is militia cranks and black helicopter buffs who were much more aware of her AIP ties than he was. I wonder how many of those people will even vote.

Update for this morning.

RCP Average 10/03 - 10/10 -- 49.9 42.3 Obama +7.6
Gallup Tracking 10/08 - 10/10 2773 RV 51 42 Obama +9
Rasmussen Tracking 10/08 - 10/10 3000 LV 52 45 Obama +7
Reuters/CSpan/Zogby Tracking 10/08 - 10/10 1212 LV 48 44 Obama +4
Hotline/FD Tracking 10/08 - 10/10 808 LV 50 40 Obama +10
Newsweek 10/08 - 10/09 1035 RV 52 41 Obama +11
FOX News 10/08 - 10/09 900 RV 46 39 Obama +7
GW/Battleground Tracking 10/06 - 10/09 800 LV 51 43 Obama +8
Time 10/03 - 10/06 1053 LV 50 44 Obama +6
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 10/04 - 10/05 658 RV 49 43 Obama +6

No changes on the electoral front right now.

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AnvilCrawlers.com - Oklahoma weather resources

I'm glad that you Obama supporters are so polite and respectful, unlike the McCain supporters. Of course, when your side comes out and trashes McCain and Palin, well, it's because they deserve it, right? Take a look at these fine, polite and respectful Obamaniac supporters:

Michelle Malkin Crush the Obamedia narrative: Look who’s “gripped by insane rage”

You win!

I'm still looking for the news articles of the McCain supporters (moderates like
me and conservatives) who stormed the democrat convention, destroyed
personal property and used violence.

It's not right that they, the media, only reported the screwballs (liberals) who
invaded the Republican Convention destroyed personal property and used
violence.

The media (plural) are so one sided. Can anybody explain this?

McCain gains slight leads in Ohio.

More serious discoveries and investigations is surfacing on Obama. Possible prison time is on the horizon.

__________________
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Okay to Thunder, Prune, and GWB...this thread is for discussion of POLLS only. Anything else you leave out of this thread. I thank the moderators for helping to keep this thread clean. Unrelated posts will continue to be reported to get deleted.

__________________
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New poll update for today...I'll go through the state by state breakdown later.

RCP Average 10/03 - 10/12 -- 49.9 42.8 Obama +7.1
Gallup Tracking 10/10 - 10/12 2284 LV 52 43.5 Obama +8.5
Rasmussen Tracking 10/10 - 10/12 3000 LV 50 45 Obama +5
Reuters/CSpan/Zogby Tracking 10/10 - 10/12 1207 LV 48 44 Obama +4
Hotline/FD Tracking 10/10 - 10/12 823 LV 48 42 Obama +6
ABC News/Wash Post 10/08 - 10/11 766 LV 53 43 Obama +10
GW/Battleground Tracking 10/07 - 10/12 800 LV 51 43 Obama +8
FOX News 10/08 - 10/09 900 RV 46 39 Obama +7
Newsweek 10/08 - 10/09 1035 RV 52 41 Obama +11
Time 10/03 - 10/06 1053 LV 50 44 Obama +6
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 10/04 - 10/05 658 RV 49 43 Obama +6

__________________
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This is gonna be to the wire.

Here's a post from EO above:

"Anybody think that Palin attempting to incite riots around the country just might not be the kind of message Americans are responding to right now?

Palin has proven herself to be a very good attack dog. Unfortunately, the attempts at character assassination don't seem to be resonating as well as they did in 2004.

Or, it could be because Newsweek didn't airbrush her photo sufficiently as some of her surrogates are claiming.

Attack dog one minute, helpless glass menagerie princess the next. I think the word here is rookie."

Interesting that you only address the conservatives on this forum and not the liberals. Conservatives "shut up", liberals, "anything goes". Your bias is showing pal.