Believe it or not, only 2 months left before the 2008 presidential election.

As some people say, and it is important to remember: "This is not a popularity contest." Our presidents are elected by the electoral college and you need 270 votes in that college to win.

I'll update this every week to give you guys an idea where the fights are. Feel free to point out any factual errors or any problems you may have with my method. I am not going to discuss actual politics in this thread, and would ask to keep that stuff out and instead focus on the practical aspect of where we are now.

States that average 10 points ahead in the polls for Obama: (180 votes)
Vermont(+34 3EV), Hawaii(+30 4EV), District of Columbia(n/a 3EV), Rhode Island(+24 4EV), Illinois(+22 21EV), Connecticut(+19 7EV), New York(+16 31EV), California(+15 55EV), Maine(+15 4EV), Massachusetts(+13 12EV), New Jersey(+11 15EV), Washington(+11 11EV), Maryland(+10 10EV)

States that average 5-10 points ahead in the polls for Obama: (58 votes)
Delaware(+9 3EV), Iowa(+9 7EV), Wisconsin(+7 10EV), Minnesota(+7 10EV), Oregon(+7 7EV), Pennsylvania(+5 21EV)

States that average 10 points ahead in the polls for McCain: (126 votes)
Wyoming(+37 3EV), Oklahoma(+29 7EV), Utah(+27.3 5EV), Idaho(+23 4EV), Alabama(+22 9EV), Tennessee(+19 11EV), Nebraska(+19 5EV), Louisana(+16 9EV), Arkansas(+16 6EV), Kentucky(+16 8EV), Kansas(+16 6EV), Alaska(+11 3EV), Arizona(+11 10EV), Mississippi(+11 6EV), Texas(+10 34EV)

States that average 5-10 points ahead in the polls for McCain: (42 votes)
South Carolina(+9 8EV), West Virginia(+8 5EV), Missouri(+7 11EV), Georgia(+6 15EV), Montana(+5 3EV)

Tossup states that average less than 5 points either way: (132 votes)
Michigan(17), New Mexico(5), North Dakota(3), Colorado(9), New Hampshire(4), Virginia(13), Ohio(20), Nevada (5), Florida(27), South Dakota(3), North Carolina(15), Indiana(11)

Congratulations Oklahoma on being the second most popular state for McCain right next to Wyoming!

The 10+ states are most likely never ever going to change. If you combine those votes with the +5 states which are less likely to change, you will have 238 votes for Obama and 168 for McCain.

Of the 132 votes that are a toss up, McCain will need 77% of the remaining ones and Obama will need 24%.

This data will change between now and the election, I will update it every Saturday.

Ha! I was JUST commenting on this in another thread.

Good job putting all the numbers up.

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ProjectOKC.com

Lol, oops.

Could you explain something for me? Why do we have to vote since the election is not base on popularity? How are these select chosens in the electorate college (whatever the hell that is) be able to decide who wins?

Is it like this way.. example...

One state... 5 EC votes for D and 5 EC votes for R. The person won most popular votes get the 5 EC votes and the other 5 EC votes for the other person is simply buried in trash?

I don't understand!

And what determines how much EC votes for a person per state? Why are the Dems getting so many EC votes and the GOP have to work harder?

Erm.. You are supposed to learn how all of that works when you are in grade school...

Electoral College (United States) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia is a good start I guess.

Essentially, the amount of votes that a state get is based off of how many members they have in Congress. In Oklahoma we have 7.

The reason the Dems get so many off of the bat is that they always win California and New York, which is 81 votes right there.

After nearly 8 years of Republican rule under Bush there just isn't a lick of sense in offering Oklahoma congratulations for going so big for McCain. If Oklahoma needs congratulations for being stupid and foolish, then I'll go along with that.

Hey Bunty, Maybe you could educate all of us stupid and foolish Okies.

It must be tough for you to live around all of us morons.

Arrogant condescension, my favorite liberal trait.

Maybe one day we will all be as enlightened.

Ditto that.

Both the Republicans and Democrats on this board need a little help with Public Relations if they hope to build their ranks.

sheesh

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ProjectOKC.com

They act like that after being smote mightily about the head and shoulders with a bible. So it's the conservative's fault.

I find it interesting that you know the past participle of smite. Maybe you do study the bible after all.

Then why don't you educate me why it is so good and so right to vote for president the foreign policy expert, John McCain who was caught in a speech referring to Putin as the president of Germany.

To so many people the presidential candidates are so dang flawed as human beings, I wouldn't be surprised if a bunch of people leave the presidential part of their ballots blank.

And who's the one that said the US had 57 States?

Seriously, don't all the candidates make gaffes from time to time? None of them are perfect. Agree?

Yeah but I love Bush's gaffes better.

Your absolutely correct that everyone on both sides love to do the gotchas. I looked for Sarah Palin to make some gotchas during her speech. Did anyone notice any? I didn't.

Uh...Where have I ever said that I didn't study the bible?

It was an assumption I made since you seem to favor abortion.

Regardless of my personal feelings and/or knowledge of the bible...It has absolutely NO business being used as a basis of law in a free country. This is not a Theocracy.

So killing is okay by you?

My personal stance on it doesn't matter. My only point was that some people think it's perfectly okay to kill a bunch of innocent civilians in an unjust war -that was started in part because God told the president to do it- and chalk it up to collateral damage and in the same breath say abortion should be illegal.

Oh come on OGTS.

Regardless of your view of how just the war is or isn't, accidentally killing a civilian in a war zone, especially when the enemy dresses the same and hides among the civilian population != intentionally planning and carrying out the murder of a child in the womb.

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My religion consists of a humble admiration of the illimitable superior spirit who reveals himself in the slight details we are able to perceive with our frail and feeble mind
Albert Einstein

It seems arrogance is a trait that knows no political bounds.

If a person kills someone in the commission of a felony such as an armed robbery, it's considered murder even if it was 'accidental.'

So are you or not in favor of abortion???

What a pin-headed response. You're equating our troops with murderers, which is disgustingly low even by your standards and your attempt to characterize the war as illegal is pathetic and wrong.

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My religion consists of a humble admiration of the illimitable superior spirit who reveals himself in the slight details we are able to perceive with our frail and feeble mind
Albert Einstein