Morning tv 7 day forecasts were all pretty tame
Really this isn't shocked. ECMWF hinted that a weaker storm system and kept most of the cold air north. 18Z GFS had a bit more northern storm track and the 00Z now has a track just south of 18Z but no where near as strong to pull down the cold air and pull up the moisture. Most of this model data is pretty weak though until the system is able to be sampled. That won't start until probably Saturday.
Morning tv 7 day forecasts were all pretty tame
This is my thinking after this morning's runs.
Storm is starting to show some more "oomf" for the Low across OK. However it looks to dump snow in the panhandles, then fizzle out and regroup as it crosses OK and dump more on Eastern OK and AR into MO.
This being said, it is a good thing the local media is calming down about a blizzard. At this time it is still too early.
I would wait until Sunday night forecasts to paint doomsday or not. RIght now the New Year's Eve storm is looking better. However this is how all of the models have been going this month. Shows a strong storm about a week+ out, then modifies once the event is nearer and things pan out totally different.
At this time I would say keep monitoring, but right now the trend is somewhat stable - the afternoon runs will give a good indication on if a more potent Low will be apparent here in OK (or not).
Main story today is going to be wind, dust, and fire danger. High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories are up (see the first page for map).
Later this afternoon/evening could see a good deal of blowing dust so visibilities could drop quite a bit.
12Z model run is processing now so we'll take a peak at next week once that's done.
New GFS continues trend towards a more potent Low. I can't stop watching these models, I want a storm so badly!
12Z GFS forecast for New Years Eve storm now shows what could be a very significant ice storm (over 1.5" of accumulation). Not buying it right now, but just tossing it out there.
It looks like sand is in our forecast!
NWS radar image loop of Composite Reflectivity from Amarillo, TX
It's not that I'm so smart, it's just that I stay with problems longer. -Albert Einstein
the news is saying we are still getting winter weather next week? Confidence increasing on next week's winter storm forecast - Oklahoma City - OKC - KOCO.com
Short Term Update - High Wind Warning remains in effect through the overnight. Cold front is approaching from the west and will get winds roaring up to 60 mph in many places. A significant amount of dust is also blowing in with this and is covering much of Western Oklahoma now. There is also a small band of snow out in the panhandles which could drop a quick inch or two in Northern sections tonight.
Christmas Day Storm Outlook
18Z GFS evolved a bit more to a heavy snow event over the NW quarter of OK. We'll just have to wait and see how it plays out to see if it will start moving back to earlier solutions. Still looks like it'll swing and move NE up into the Lower Lakes. At that time we'll see a classic transfer of energy to a new coastal low (Nor'easter) on Thursday/Friday.
New Years Storm Outlook
18Z GFS takes the system south through Texas with some overrunning precip over OK. Looking at generally 0.5 to 1.0" of liquid with it all melted down. Looking at the air temps it might start off as a very cold rain initially but should go over to snow pretty quickly. Surface temps are going to be at or just above freezing.
The Christmas Day Storm still won't be on shore until Sunday, so a lot of volatility with the forecasts should be expected.
00Z GFS keeps with the 18Z theme. First primary low strengthens over the panhandles and then swings east just south of the Red River. It'll move out over Arkansas to the Boot Heel area of MO by Weds morning. It continues NE into Central OH and starts to transfer scenario to a new low off the Carolina coast.
Snowfall area is a little further south to I-40 again.
Mike Morgan still says there's an opportunity for "significant accumulation" :-)
Blizzard(abbrev. BLZD)- A blizzard means that the following conditions are expected to prevail for a period of 3 hours or longer:
- Sustained wind or frequent gusts to 35 miles an hour or greater; and
- Considerable falling and/or blowing snow (i.e., reducing visibility frequently to less than ΒΌ mile)
Blizzard WarningIssued for winter storms with sustained or frequent winds of 35 mph or higher with considerable falling and/or blowing snow that frequently reduces visibility to 1/4 of a mile or less. These conditions are expected to prevail for a minimum of 3 hours.
Notice the absence of any accumulation requirement for a blizzard. 1 inch...16 inches...doesn't matter.
Strongest wind is in Central OK now. Will last for a few more hours. Gusts 45-55 mph are likely. Sustained winds should remain between 30-40 mph.
Yea those winds last night were insane.
This morning's GFS pretty much destroys the Christmas storm. It did this once before a few days ago, but we will see if the trend continues this afternoon. But right now it looks like cold dry air.
Have g-babies, daughter and her hub rolling in from se WY most/all of the 24th after 9am their time (hopefully). I will be rolling back from sw Dallas myself with youngest son late on the 24th. So if storms can manage to sit somewhere out west until Christmas day, I can be happily snowed in beginning then. Can always send the SSgt. SiL back by plane and entertain my Ames and the g-babies for an extra week should it get uglie out.
Now, if only I could get 'bama son and bride home as well. Not to be this year unfortunately. But on a brighter note, the twister last night missed his house by a mile and missed his workplace as well. Was good to hear they all fared well.
New GFS run out. Indicating a possible trend to push the system further south. (need better moisture return though, now)
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