It is an educated response.
Russia has had loyalist in that disputed region for a long time.
Much like the British Loyalists in the American Rev.
They push the button of the Georgian President. (which is not hard) He typically speaks with out weighing the results of his words.
Georgia reacts, Russia Counters.
All right on time and on script if not this year certainly within the next 2.
There are reason as to why now.

As far as thinking about what is below 30000.
You think about it. This is why as Americans we use technology to reduce Collateral damage. My original point is that the Russians will not do so. USSR and China are some of the most cruel and repressive societies to ever exist.
Nazi germany had nothing on Joe Stalin.