Exactly. That is one of the biggest cost drivers to oil right now. The dollar is incredibly weak. There are only two ways to make the dollar stronger, raise taxes or raise core interest rates (e.g. both take money off the table, making it more scarce... causing that whole supply and demand thing to kick in).

Very rarely would I say this, but we need a tax increase right now. Increasing interest rates isn't going to happen and shouldn't because the economy is very fragile at the moment. Tax increases are more of a soft supply removal of cash from the system. It won't happen though... it runs counter to "common sense."

The other major factor is how oil is traded. People are day trading it like madmen. The oil futures market has really gotten out of hand over the last 15 years or so. I think it is time to increase regulation there. To my pleasant surprise, I see that Senator Obama is making that a cornerstone of his energy policy today.

As far as are we in a recession or not.... Yes, but it can on occasion be the result of some other things. The "two quarters of record with a declining GDP" is the general rule of thumb but not an exact rule per se. Should the average person worry about it? I'm more worried about inflation personally. But I guess it really depends on what industry you are in. For example if you are in retail sales counting on commission checks, I bet things are getting pretty rough right now.

As far as the whole gold thing... Eeeh, not buying it. The gold rush is over, expect a downward trend from this point forward. Not to mention that the price of gold literally flat-lined for 20 years throughout the 1970s and early 1980s. Not exactly a great long-term investment. I'm also not a big fan of the "lets back our reserve with gold" movement. First of all, there isn't enough gold in the world in existence today to support our economy. That means in order for gold to back the dollar we would have to seriously and significantly crash the value of the dollar, shrinking the pie enough so that a dollar could be worth some gold equivalent. This would wreak havoc on our economy. It would have to be done very, very slowly. And even if done slowly, the result would in all likelihood still be a deflationary period, which is a much, much worse position to be in. Deflation nearly killed the Japanese economy in the 1990s. "Stagflation" or flat-lining isn't nearly as bad and think of what it did to us here in the US during the 1970s.